A trip on the edge of crisis
the review in the rearview mirror
Author: Yuri Smirnov . Topic: expert interviews . Posted: 26.11.2009, 0:04.
One of the major ironies of the last year: the simultaneous increase in interest and distrust of the economic forecasts. On the one hand, the prospects for ending the crisis and the contours of the post-crisis world have become one of the main themes in the business media, blogs and social networks. On the other hand, the audience commented irritably regular adjustment of forecasts of prominent analysts, state officials, representatives of international financial institutions and rating agencies. Obviously, the prediction itself was in crisis. Nevertheless, businessmen are still in need of orientation and continue their search.
Which methods of forecasting today can be used? Replied one of the leading Belarusian forecasters, head of the company's prediction markets Indecom Valentin peas.
The crisis weighed and found too light
Valentin Goroshko
- First, the crisis has been predicted many times. Secondly, the output of the world economy out of recession is not too close, as they say. But let us all about it. Crisis predicted in detail not only popular today Flexography. Over the last decade, the attentive reader may have noticed a lot of publications in the business media (rare - in Russian, often - in English), who warned of the inevitability of a severe recession, stressing that, due to the accumulated distortions in the economy, we are not waiting for the usual cyclical and the system slowdown. I still remember in 2003 published an article on this subject the well-known financier George Soros: 'Oh, the music ceased, and they all shake a leg. So serious people they knew in advance. But, of course, could not predict "the day of X». Therefore, market participants can understand: when everything is traded on the rise - foolish to remain aloof. Everything just doing their business, trying to make money. And when the day X »yet-come, lost those who remained in the hands of the" acid "assets, and won those before the crisis put them on a chain. And then, and another was a matter of chance.
- Do you think that the crisis is not over?
- Unequivocally - no. See, for example, the chart, based on the open statistics of the Federal Reserve. The monetary base - a set of obligations of the central bank, which can be used to create the money supply. The increase in the monetary base leads to a multiple (multiplicative) increase of deposits in commercial banks and the money supply. As you can see, the last quarter brought an unprecedented monetary pumping, compared with which the activity of the Fed since the dotcom crisis has ripple on the water. Clearly, we still have a serious test.
Source: U.S. Federal Reserve (http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h3/current/h3.htm).
From the trend - to scripts
- Why are all the same analysts over the last year so often changed their forecasts?
- Do market forecasts have always been tricky: economy - a very complex system, which has thousands of feedbacks, and often nonlinear. Recall, for example, "war" on cassette and CD-players. As soon as the latter have become cheaper than the first, analysts unanimously predicted a quick death audiocassettes. It would seem that if you put next to the bulky tape elegant and cost-CD-Player - the choice is obvious. However, none of the analysts had not occurred, that most buyers will need another six years to decide to overwrite your audio collection to new media and searching for her new home in an apartment ... nonlinear economic processes in times of crisis aggravated by the new unpredictable factors. Imagine you were the driver, who rides on a mountain road, but had to drive a car looking only in the rearview mirror. The image, of course, surreal - but it corresponds exactly to our capacity to anticipate and manage the global economy. As long as the road goes straight up the hill - the driver can easily predict the subsequent motion, focusing on distance traveled. But once on the road there is a zigzag (read - a crisis) - the machine runs the risk of falling into the abyss if the driver does not detach itself from the rear-view mirror. Same with the methods of forecasting the market. Today, stopped working almost all the classical mathematical models, based on the use of historical statistics, determining the function of the process, the allocation trend component and extrapolation of the function for future periods. In particular, the "winding road" no longer give an adequate picture of all the popular models for forecasting the market, members of the family of ARIMA-method. Their time will return only when the market will return to sustained development.
- Then what models work? If you push off from your metaphor, what methods can now "look forward"?
- I have similar questions today are often asked to lecture to business school IPM. For example: how, to forecast sales of cars, if the auto-dealer sales fell by 80%. Classical methods are powerless here. At the disposal of business, in fact, there are only methods of scenario forecasting. By the way, at the global level, these methods worked well and I think now at full power used by governments of developed countries. After World War II technology scenario forecasting for decades were ground in western private think tanks, working on state orders and so-called situational room with the president and prime minister. Similar situation center has emerged in Russia. As far as I know, made attempts to create them in Belarus. The duties of their staff, in particular, is responsible for conducting situational games, during which examines the most incredible risks and ways to leveling. What do you think that made the U.S. president when, for example, had a Cuban missile crisis? He just opened the envelope, which was painted by order of actions in the case next to the borders of the U.S. military bases appear probable opponent. And such envelopes for decades has been prepared countless. The same technology works today. For example, the American media are now screaming about creating 'booking campuses, where authorities allegedly preparing to intern all the discontented. Does the Obama to curtail democracy? No, of course, merely a system of preparing a back-up moves, in case the crisis will cause social unrest ...
- How scenario forecasting methods can be used at the enterprise level?
- In my opinion, the only approach that adequately working today at the micro level - the tree building scenarios: from global processes, moving to the mainland, country processes and ending with the level of a particular company. Together with my colleague Andrew Kalyada we developed on the basis of this approach technology FMTM, From macro to micro («On the macro level - to the micro level). This method based on incremental consideration different level of risk to move to the analysis of key indicators of enterprise with a traditional, well-known businessmen balance model.
- The reason for the creation of this technology has become the current crisis?
- No, it began to be developed earlier. Even in prosperous times, clients often ask us questions: "How do I calculate the benefits of new development in the region in which I do not have any sales figures?" Many of the analytical and consulting agencies simply did not undertake such work - either offered to conduct a survey of buyers. But what is the use of the survey, if this is a new, unknown product to customers? Therefore, we have developed an approach to take into account in a model of trends in the macro and micro levels. For example, the company intends to sell in a new area TVs. To begin, we look so important macroeconomic indicators as the amount of free money from the population. We analyze their distribution by sector of consumption: utilities, food, durables, etc., and among durable goods - televisions, furniture, carpets, etc.. Then see how the situation develops at the macro level (for clarity, I recall the 1990's, when people have enough money, mainly for housing and food), which dominated the industry in the region - outsiders or leaders, any non-linear factors and risks affect today's consumer behavior, etc. This approach allows us to accurately calculate whether the demand for TVs in the region to rise or fall. And how well the company will take advantage of this objective tendency - already the question of ownership marketing technologies. Of course, this approach does not provide answers when it comes to the sale of investment products: tractors, machines, etc. They operate other mechanisms: bidding procurement, state order. But in the consumer market, we recommend that only such an approach.
From the global market - to a separate company
- Showcase, please, work method From macro to micro as an example of the current crisis. Which scenarios should take into account the domestic enterprises?
- Let's start with the global level. At this level, clearly visible are three basic scenarios - inflation, deflation and protectionist - and the train of the world economy remains very little to the bifurcation. In principle, the events so far developed for the inflationary scenario. Moreover, the unprecedented monetary pumping, which we discussed above, involved not only the U.S. Federal Reserve, but the central banks of many other countries. Naturally, it is infinitely could not continue. According to our calculations, the denouement comes about six months. After that - or hyperinflation, or transition to other, more painful scenarios. Of course, the inflation path - very painful. And for households and enterprises, and for states. But - not fatal.
- Are you sure?
- His audience - and it is experienced and wise businessmen lives 30-50 years, I often ask in class the question: what levels of inflation do you remember? Typically, voiced figure of 30-40%. And people can not believe my eyes when you show them charts of the National Bank of Belarus, which recorded rates of inflation, which reached 1800% in the middle of 1994-95, and 150-200% - most recently in 2000-2001! In this case the interest rate in the first case reached 300% in the second - 100%. Thus, the difficulties associated with hyperinflation, quickly forgotten. Of course, the effects of hyperinflation on a global scale in the current context can be very painful, in particular, the gold price could rise to $ 1400-1500 an ounce of oil - up to $ 200-300 per barrel. The process can be completed the fall of the dollar, the emergence of a new world currency with a flexible and transparent regulatory system, the introduction of the gold standard or other similar measures. Will deflate the old "bubbles". Disappear, many banks, companies, their place will be new brands. But - will remain familiar and comfortable enough for most of the current capitalist system. Preserving human capital. So I perfectly understand the logic of the world's regulators, who seek a respite businesses and people and push events on the least painful way.
– Дефляционный и протекционистский сценарии несут больше рисков?
– Гораздо больше. Дефляция – это вообще катастрофа. Рафинированные экономисты, живущие в золотой клетке, могут сколько угодно говорить о том, что наилучший путь – позволить экономическим силам самим отрегулировать все механизмы. В реальности этот сценарий запустит дефляционную спираль, вызовет повальное банкротство банков и предприятий, взрыв безработицы, глобальный и локальные социальные коллапсы. Вы только представьте, что в городе останавливается большинство предприятий. Людям ничего не останется других способов выживания, кроме растаскивания инфраструктуры, начиная с медных проводов на линиях электропередач. Дело может дойти до социальных волнений и даже разрушения отдельных национальных экономик и государств. Что касается протекционистского сценария, то в его формуле – слишком много неизвестных. В принципе, мы уже сейчас наблюдаем элементы протекционизма в действиях многих стран. Но если этот сценарий всерьез предпочтет большинство государств, если страны начнут «закрывать» национальные экономики от внешнего мира, замыкать внутренние ресурсы на собственное потребление – нам придется забыть о глобализации и правилах ВТО. Более того, третий сценарий равносилен отказу от капиталистической системы в ее современном виде. К чему может привести подобная системная трансформация и порадуют ли нас ее итоги – сегодня сказать сложно: слишком много альтернатив.
– Какие варианты развития событий возможны на страновом уровне – в Беларуси?
– Отчетливо просматриваются три базовых сценария: долговой, эмиссионный и приватизационный. Пока что страна движется по первому, долговому сценарию (сценарий рекрутинга внешних ресурсов). Чтобы помочь торговому и платежному балансам, ведется ювелирная геополитическая игра, привлекаются средства из любых доступных источников. Но, понятно, что этот источник не бесконечен: как только придет время платить по кредитам, нынешний отрицательный платежный баланс усугубится еще больше. Следовательно, нарастает риск девальвации, который в течение года купировался быстрым ростом внешнего долга (в первую очередь – правительственного) и отдельными приватизационными актами. Неустойчивость девальвационного навеса сильно возрастает к середине 2010 – началу 2011 года, и по достижении внешним долгом предела безопасности валютный риск становится нетерпимым. Если в этих условиях расходы бюджета не будут скорректированы пропорционально доходам, то дефицит бюджета станет дополнительным усугубляющим фактором. Эффект отвлечения ресурсов на финансирование дефицита увеличит ставки и еще больше ограничит экономическую активность, увеличит издержки и приведет к падению сборов в бюджет и далее по кругу обратной связи. Таким образом, эмиссионное финансирование бюджета даже при улучшении мировой конъюнктуры ведет к скоротечному валютному кризису и распаду финансовой системы страны. Возможно замораживание счетов населения, гиперинфляция и огромные процентные ставки, а ВВП, по нашим оценкам, сократится в 2010 году на 4,8%. К чему приведет эмиссионный сценарий в РБ при ухудшении мировой конъюнктуры – об этом даже говорить не хочется…
- Remains the privatization scenario?
- Yes, it is the only reasonable alternative. Significant acceleration of privatization will not only ensure filling the state treasury, which in this dire need, but also improve economic efficiency of privatized objects thanks to the emergence of private ownership. In this case all of the current economic imbalances can be covered by attracting a huge amount of investment and direct sales to large and small objects of domestic and foreign investors. Of course, the privatization path - not easy, especially in socio-oriented state. Necessary to understand the political will and well-considered privatization policy. The past 20 years have shown that privatization of the Russian sample yielded a much smaller effect than the "dot" Privatization in Belarusian. At least, selling businesses owners who are interested in the destruction of property for the land (that happened many times in Russia) will bring nothing but harm. But on the other hand, privatization can no longer linger: If you rely only on the debt or the emission scenario, by year, the situation with exports deteriorate further, and our company, nobody would buy a normal price.
- So, we got six scenarios. What to do with the director of the company?
- First we need to establish a system of quarterly and monthly monitoring of the global levels. Then - to handle all possible scenarios at these levels. Take, for example retail outlets that sell a wide nomenclature of consumer goods. If confirmed by the implementation of deflationary scenario at the global level (ie the whole set of indicators pointing to continued decline of business activity and the reduction of total world demand), the logic within FMTM simplistically reduced to finding an answer to the question: how will this affect the economic situation in Belarus? Analysis of the trade balance (the dynamics and structure) will allow the analyst to determine the likely level of increase in the deficit, which may be correlated with the size of foreign reserves. Next, you should closely monitor the internal republican (country) indices to detect the first statistical hints on what scenario are ready to move controllers (or completely idle). For example, the analyst sees a dramatic change in the article "The loan of state administration bodies, which may be interpreted as a direct issue with the deficit-ridden budget (ie you can talk about the high probability of the third, the emission scenario). The analyst must understand how these actions affect the aggregate consumer demand and develop a set of smoothing, to act reasonably, which will help to meet the possibility of inflation and falling consumer demand fully equipped (eg, care to trade stocks and stock changes in the structure in the direction of cheap commodity groups). This small hypothetical example, we went all the way from the macro level to micro level, ie a particular sector of the economy, to a specific enterprise, which has developed a proactive action and closely monitoring the situation to apply them as soon see confirmation of his assumptions (scenarios).
- How to create an enterprise service forecasting?
- In essence, we need two things: the numbers - and the people who will analyze them. Fortunately, in Belarus have all the necessary statistical base macro-level, accessible without critical delay in the work - a collection of the Ministry of analysis and statistics that are trusted, even international institutions. For example, in the collections of "Foreign Trade of the Republic of Belarus" all commodity flows detailed statistics are painted with a long "tail" for 5-6 years. I often see their students in class - and for many accessibility in RB so useful of figures is a revelation. But an even greater shock experienced listeners, when I call the circulation of each book - an average of only 120 pieces. The reason for such a small interest in statistics - on the surface: the vast majority of enterprises engaged in deep analytics and forecasts to no one. In fact, Belarus has yet to establish his own school of forecasting, macroeconomic analysis and macromodelling comparable to "the quality of sensing the future" with the western school. But, if you wish, for your company, you can always find specialists more or less suitable profile. Thus, in BSEU train specialists in economic cybernetics, and the BSU on specialty "World Economy" is widely acquainted with the economic modeling. With respect to internal business statistics, many of them are good IT-specialists and have accumulated a huge database of sales, marketing. And for the synthesis of internal and external statistics and build on its base scenario models in most cases, enough of the available tools as Excel.
Работа с прогнозными моделями изменит к лучшему ваш стиль управления и повысит устойчивость вашего предприятия. Вместо того, чтобы с опозданием реагировать на внешние события как на свершившиеся факты, вы сможете заранее «прогнать» свое предприятие через стресс-тесты: «А где мы окажемся, если завтра рецессия закончится? Или, наоборот, начнется гиперинфляция? Или резко упадет платежеспособность населения? Какие варианты действий есть у нас в запасе?» Самое время поискать ответы на эти вопросы.
Валентин Горошко
30 лет. В 2000-ом году окончил Белорусский государственный экономический университет по специальности «экономическая кибернетика». Начинал бизнес-карьеру с работы трейдером, риск-менеджером, возглавлял аналитические отделы в ряде крупных компаний. С 2006 года – руководитель направления прогнозирования рынков. Разработчик ряда авторских методик в области маркетингового анализа и прогнозирования. Консультант по построению и внедрению CRM-систем.
Future posts
| Netlenki from the archive |
